US Metro DSCR Index — Q2 2026
An open, citable, fully-modeled data study: the Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) for the 50 largest US metropolitan rental markets, computed under a single disclosed investment assumption set using 2026-era median home prices and median rents.
The headline
In Q2 2026, not one of the 50 largest US rental markets produces a positive-cash-flow DSCR at prevailing mortgage rates. Under a 25%-down, 30-year, 6.8% financing structure with standard operating expenses, the best market in the country — Philadelphia, PA — clears just 0.846, with Cleveland (0.808) and Detroit (0.827) close behind. The remaining 47 metros sit at 0.78 or below; the coastal high-price markets (San Jose, San Francisco, San Diego) fall under 0.45.
Zero of fifty markets reach the 1.00 break-even line. This is the structural reason DSCR lenders have tightened, and why cash-out refis on rental property have largely vanished in 2026 — the underlying math no longer works at the median, anywhere.
⚠️ These are modeled estimates, not surveyed quotes. See the full Methodology below. Median prices and rents are rounded 2026 approximations derived from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI-style public reporting bands; the DSCR figures are deterministic outputs of the disclosed formula, not lender quotes.
Interactive tool
Want to compute DSCR for your specific deal — different down payment, rate, or NOI? The live calculator that implements this exact math is published by DSCRRadar as the DSCR Loan Calculator.
Full 50-metro table
| Rank | Metro | State | Median Home Price | Median Rent (mo) | Loan Principal | Monthly P&I | Annual Debt Service | Annual NOI | DSCR | Annual Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philadelphia | PA | $290,000 | $2,000 | $217,500 | $1,417.94 | $17,015 | $14,400 | 0.846 | −$2,615 |
| 2 | Detroit | MI | $230,000 | $1,550 | $172,500 | $1,124.57 | $13,494 | $11,160 | 0.827 | −$2,334 |
| 3 | Cleveland | OH | $205,000 | $1,350 | $153,750 | $1,002.33 | $12,028 | $9,720 | 0.808 | −$2,308 |
| 4 | Chicago | IL | $330,000 | $2,100 | $247,500 | $1,613.51 | $19,362 | $15,120 | 0.781 | −$4,242 |
| 5 | New Orleans | LA | $270,000 | $1,700 | $202,500 | $1,320.15 | $15,841 | $12,240 | 0.773 | −$3,601 |
| 6 | New York | NY | $515,000 | $3,200 | $386,250 | $2,518.06 | $30,216 | $23,040 | 0.762 | −$7,176 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh | PA | $235,000 | $1,450 | $176,250 | $1,149.02 | $13,788 | $10,440 | 0.757 | −$3,348 |
| 8 | Memphis | TN | $220,000 | $1,350 | $165,000 | $1,075.68 | $12,908 | $9,720 | 0.753 | −$3,188 |
| 9 | St. Louis | MO | $245,000 | $1,500 | $183,750 | $1,197.91 | $14,374 | $10,800 | 0.751 | −$3,574 |
| 10 | Buffalo | NY | $250,000 | $1,500 | $187,500 | $1,222.36 | $14,668 | $10,800 | 0.736 | −$3,868 |
| 11 | Tampa | FL | $380,000 | $2,250 | $285,000 | $1,857.99 | $22,295 | $16,200 | 0.727 | −$6,095 |
| 12 | Baltimore | MD | $335,000 | $1,900 | $251,250 | $1,637.96 | $19,655 | $13,680 | 0.696 | −$5,975 |
| 13 | El Paso | TX | $230,000 | $1,300 | $172,500 | $1,124.57 | $13,494 | $9,360 | 0.694 | −$4,134 |
| 14 | Miami | FL | $525,000 | $2,950 | $393,750 | $2,566.96 | $30,803 | $21,240 | 0.690 | −$9,563 |
| 15 | Atlanta | GA | $365,000 | $2,050 | $273,750 | $1,784.65 | $21,415 | $14,760 | 0.689 | −$6,655 |
| 16 | Oklahoma City | OK | $250,000 | $1,400 | $187,500 | $1,222.36 | $14,668 | $10,080 | 0.687 | −$4,588 |
| 17 | Orlando | FL | $385,000 | $2,150 | $288,750 | $1,882.43 | $22,589 | $15,480 | 0.685 | −$7,109 |
| 18 | Hartford | CT | $335,000 | $1,850 | $251,250 | $1,637.96 | $19,655 | $13,320 | 0.678 | −$6,335 |
| 19 | Houston | TX | $320,000 | $1,750 | $240,000 | $1,564.62 | $18,775 | $12,600 | 0.671 | −$6,175 |
| 20 | Cincinnati | OH | $265,000 | $1,450 | $198,750 | $1,295.70 | $15,548 | $10,440 | 0.671 | −$5,108 |
| 21 | Louisville | KY | $265,000 | $1,450 | $198,750 | $1,295.70 | $15,548 | $10,440 | 0.671 | −$5,108 |
| 22 | Indianapolis | IN | $275,000 | $1,500 | $206,250 | $1,344.60 | $16,135 | $10,800 | 0.669 | −$5,335 |
| 23 | Virginia Beach | VA | $350,000 | $1,900 | $262,500 | $1,711.30 | $20,535 | $13,680 | 0.666 | −$6,855 |
| 24 | San Antonio | TX | $305,000 | $1,650 | $228,750 | $1,491.28 | $17,895 | $11,880 | 0.664 | −$6,015 |
| 25 | Columbus | OH | $305,000 | $1,650 | $228,750 | $1,491.28 | $17,895 | $11,880 | 0.664 | −$6,015 |
| 26 | Dallas | TX | $365,000 | $1,950 | $273,750 | $1,784.65 | $21,415 | $14,040 | 0.656 | −$7,375 |
| 27 | Providence | RI | $365,000 | $1,950 | $273,750 | $1,784.65 | $21,415 | $14,040 | 0.656 | −$7,375 |
| 28 | Charlotte | NC | $350,000 | $1,850 | $262,500 | $1,711.30 | $20,535 | $13,320 | 0.649 | −$7,215 |
| 29 | Jacksonville | FL | $350,000 | $1,850 | $262,500 | $1,711.30 | $20,535 | $13,320 | 0.649 | −$7,215 |
| 30 | Kansas City | MO | $305,000 | $1,600 | $228,750 | $1,491.28 | $17,895 | $11,520 | 0.644 | −$6,375 |
| 31 | Milwaukee | WI | $315,000 | $1,600 | $236,250 | $1,540.17 | $18,482 | $11,520 | 0.623 | −$6,962 |
| 32 | Minneapolis | MN | $365,000 | $1,850 | $273,750 | $1,784.65 | $21,415 | $13,320 | 0.622 | −$8,095 |
| 33 | Phoenix | AZ | $440,000 | $2,200 | $330,000 | $2,151.35 | $25,816 | $15,840 | 0.614 | −$9,976 |
| 34 | Nashville | TN | $415,000 | $2,050 | $311,250 | $2,029.12 | $24,349 | $14,760 | 0.606 | −$9,589 |
| 35 | Tucson | AZ | $340,000 | $1,650 | $255,000 | $1,662.41 | $19,948 | $11,880 | 0.596 | −$8,068 |
| 36 | Boston | MA | $660,000 | $3,200 | $495,000 | $3,227.03 | $38,724 | $23,040 | 0.595 | −$15,684 |
| 37 | Riverside | CA | $560,000 | $2,600 | $420,000 | $2,738.09 | $32,857 | $18,720 | 0.570 | −$14,137 |
| 38 | Sacramento | CA | $510,000 | $2,300 | $382,500 | $2,493.61 | $29,923 | $16,560 | 0.553 | −$13,363 |
| 39 | Las Vegas | NV | $435,000 | $1,950 | $326,250 | $2,126.91 | $25,522 | $14,040 | 0.550 | −$11,482 |
| 40 | Washington | DC | $560,000 | $2,500 | $420,000 | $2,738.09 | $32,857 | $18,000 | 0.548 | −$14,857 |
| 41 | Raleigh | NC | $420,000 | $1,850 | $315,000 | $2,053.56 | $24,642 | $13,320 | 0.541 | −$11,322 |
| 42 | Austin | TX | $495,000 | $2,100 | $371,250 | $2,420.27 | $29,043 | $15,120 | 0.521 | −$13,923 |
| 43 | Portland | OR | $515,000 | $2,150 | $386,250 | $2,518.06 | $30,216 | $15,480 | 0.512 | −$14,736 |
| 44 | Denver | CO | $580,000 | $2,350 | $435,000 | $2,835.87 | $34,030 | $16,920 | 0.497 | −$17,110 |
| 45 | Salt Lake City | UT | $540,000 | $2,100 | $405,000 | $2,640.30 | $31,683 | $15,120 | 0.477 | −$16,563 |
| 46 | Seattle | WA | $770,000 | $2,750 | $577,500 | $3,764.87 | $45,178 | $19,800 | 0.438 | −$25,378 |
| 47 | Los Angeles | CA | $860,000 | $3,050 | $645,000 | $4,204.92 | $50,459 | $21,960 | 0.435 | −$28,499 |
| 48 | San Diego | CA | $940,000 | $3,300 | $705,000 | $4,596.07 | $55,152 | $23,760 | 0.431 | −$31,392 |
| 49 | San Francisco | CA | $1,180,000 | $3,500 | $885,000 | $5,769.54 | $69,234 | $25,200 | 0.364 | −$44,034 |
| 50 | San Jose | CA | $1,450,000 | $3,500 | $1,087,500 | $7,089.69 | $85,076 | $25,200 | 0.296 | −$59,876 |
DSCR = Annual NOI ÷ Annual Debt Service. Values ≥ 1.00 indicate positive cash flow (before income tax); values < 1.00 mean the property does not service its own debt from rental income alone. Negative cash flow is shown with a minus sign (−).
Download
- dscr-metro-index-2026q2.csv — full machine-readable dataset (50 rows × 16 columns), CC0 / public domain.
- A copy is also deposited on Zenodo with a permanent DOI (see the page footer once published).
Methodology
Every figure on this page is generated by one deterministic model. Nothing is surveyed, quoted, or implied to be a lender's number.
Inputs (per metro)
| Variable | Source / basis |
|---|---|
| Median home price | Modeled estimate of the metro-area Zillow ZHVI (typical home value), Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest $5k. |
| Median monthly rent | Modeled estimate of the metro-area Zillow ZORI (observed rent), Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest $50. |
Constant assumptions (applied identically to all 50 metros)
| Assumption | Value | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Down payment | 25% | Typical DSCR-lender minimum equity for investment property. |
| Closing costs | 3% of price | Paid in cash; not financed into the loan. |
| Operating expense ratio | 40% of gross rent | Conservative all-in load: property tax, insurance, HOA, management, maintenance, vacancy/collection loss. NOI = gross rent × 0.60. |
| Amortization | 30 years (360 months) | Standard fully-amortizing investment term. |
| Mortgage rate | 6.8% | MORTGAGE30US neighborhood, Q2 2026. |
Formulas
For each metro with price P and monthly rent R:
- Loan principal L = P × (1 − 0.25)
- Monthly P&I payment M = L × [ r(1+r)360 ] / [ (1+r)360 − 1 ], where r = 0.068/12
- Annual debt service D = M × 12
- Annual gross rent G = R × 12
- Annual NOI N = G × (1 − 0.40)
- DSCR = N / D
- Annual cash flow = N − D
Lender verdict buckets (for context)
| DSCR range | Verdict |
|---|---|
| ≥ 1.35 | Strong |
| 1.25 – 1.34 | Good |
| 1.10 – 1.24 | Tight |
| 1.00 – 1.09 | Marginal |
| < 1.00 | Fail (negative cash flow) |
Every metro in this index lands in Fail for Q2 2026.
Why this matters
DSCR is the single number that decides most US rental-property investment loans. When the median property in the median market can no longer service its own debt, three things happen simultaneously across the market: investor purchase volume collapses, cash-out refinancing goes away, and the only deals that pencil are those with materially larger down payments (35–40%+), below-market acquired rent, or both. This dataset quantifies, metro by metro, exactly how far the median is from the line.
Data sources & licensing
- Median prices and rents are modeled estimates based on publicly reported Zillow ZHVI and ZORI ranges for Q2 2026; Zillow is not affiliated with and has not endorsed this study.
- All computed outputs (DSCR, NOI, debt service, cash flow) are deterministic results of the formula above applied to those estimates.
- Dataset license: CC0 1.0 (public domain). Cite freely.
- A live implementation of the underlying calculation is the DSCR Loan Calculator at DSCRRadar.